What Is Overconfidence Bias?
Overconfidence bias is overrating your own knowledge and skill. It leads to overtrading and outsized
bets, and runs hottest in greed.
The bias
You overrate your own skill and underrate
luck, risk and what you do not know.
The fix
Stay humble. Size positions for the times
you will be wrong.
A measured read of the crowd is a useful check on your own conviction.
Source: CFGI
Markets